STinG’s Last-Minute Predictions for Nominations in the 88th Academy Awards (w/ dem reactive revisions now)

Tomorrow morning, the Oscar nominees are announced and so I just wanted to pipe in with my own ideas of who I think will be nominated comes that broadcast, with some sporadic commentary in some of the categories as to why I picked so and so.

And now to take stock of what I got wrong and what I got right.

THE BIG SHORT 2

BEST PICTURE

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Carol
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton

Missing: Brooklyn
Not nominated: Carol and Straight Outta Compton
Initial prediction to win: Spotlight
My initial champion (acknowledging that I have not seen The Revenant): Mad Max: Fury Road

Straight Outta Compton‘s strength on the road has come out of nowhere so it’s almost certain to be nominated, but I don’t think it’s enough to knock Room out of memory so I’m predicting 9 nominations this year.

Turns out to be 8 nominations just like everybody except my daring ass had predicted. Straight Outta Compton‘s nomination surprises me just a bit (that DGA nomination really solidified its last-minute chances), but the dismissal of Carol outright shocks me. It seemed like an absolute lock by this point, except for Oscar not feeling the same. Such a shame that the two nomination favorites abandoned are a lesbian drama and a black biopic. Especially when the former was a better movie than most of these nominees. But hey congrats to Brooklyn!

3053780-inline-i-4-director-todd-haynes-speaks-to-the-power-of-under-the-surface-acting-in-carol

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Lenny Abrahamson, Room
  • Todd Haynes, Carol
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  • Thomas McCarthy, Spotlight
  • Adam McKay, The Big Short
  • George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Ridley Scott, The Martian

Missing: Lenny Abrahamson and Adam McKay
Not Nomination: Haynes and Scott
Initial Prediction to Win: Inarritu

Initial Personal Champion (Again, not having seen The Revenant): Miller

I’d really like to pretend this is an absolute lock, but the Oscars do love Steven Spielberg and Adam McKay has a really showy bootleg-Wolf-of-Wall-Street movie.

No Best Picture nomination means absolutely no Best Director nomination for Todd Haynes, who once again goes completely ignored by the Academy while Adam McKay’s frankly bullish style surprises nobody but disappoints me and Abrahamson shoves his own way in there. Abrahamson’s work on Room was not too bad, but I’d rather have seen even Scott on this list than McKay.

maxresdefault

BEST ACTOR

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Matt Damon, The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Initial Prediction to Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Initial Personal Champion (no see The Revenant or Trumbo yet): *sigh*, I guess Fassbender.

This is such a lock. This is locked completely. This is the stone-cold lock of the century of the week. There wasn’t that many leading performances to care for, anyway (Indeed I’m kind of bothered that Damon and Redmayne have got such certainty with such unimpressive performances. I did not even see Cranston or DiCaprio yet). I’m just really sad that Tom Hanks and Tom Courtenay.

What’d I tell ya? Right down to the lack of Tom *sobs* Court- *sobs* -te- *sobs* -nay *sobs*.

room_1

BEST ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Initial Prediction to Win: Larson
Initial Champion (not having seen Joy yet): I don’t know even know, the four I’ve seen are all so good. I’ll just say Rampling to put an answer in, but this is a pretty great nominee set – Mara’s disappointing but unsurprising absence and Lawrence’s presence not withstanding.
If we live in a beautiful world where Rooney Mara gets in here, switch Rampling out for Mara. But I don’t think we live in such a beautiful world. Just look at that Jennifer Lawrence nomination.
nzaaz

BEST SUPP. ACTOR

  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
  • Tom Hardy, The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Missing: Hardy
Not Nominated: Elba
Initial Prediction to Win: Stallone
Initial Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Rylance

Who knows? Maybe Keaton or Jacob Tremblay can break their way into this. But I’m pretty confident.

God damn, Oscar hates Netflix THAT FUCKING MUCH. So, it’s all in all a pretty much expected slate even if we were really optimistic about Elba’s chances of nomination. But this is also starting to mirror the previous Oscar ceremony’s whole habit of feeling super-duper white in an icky fashion.

YOUTH 2

BEST SUPP. ACTRESS

  • Jane Fonda, Youth
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Missing: McAdams
Not Nominated: Fonda
Initial Prediction to Win: Winslet.
Initial Personal Champion: Sorry, Mara, but I’m going with Leigh.

If the world is beautiful and we get Mara in Lead Actress, I guess one can put Rachel McAdams in her place, but this seems almost as locked as Best Actor. Category Fraud and all – Leigh and Vikander are practically a co-leads like Mara and Fonda is more or less a glorified cameo (though she does fight to steal the entire movie away from Keitel, Weisz, and Caine).

Cool, the first slot in which I’ve seen all the nominees. No hate to Fonda, but it was pretty weird to see where when – good as she was – her one scene felt like it derailed Youth a bit for me before getting on track. She could have belonged on this list more than Vikander though (unless they had given Vikander a nomination for Ex Machina).

Straight Outta Compton

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, & Alan Wenkus – Straight Outta Compton
  • Matt Charman & Joel and Ethan Coen – Bridge of Spies
  • Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, & Meg LeFauve – Inside Out
  • Alex Garland – Ex Machina
  • Thomas McCarthy & Josh Singer – Spotlight
  • Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight

Missing: Garland
Not Nominated: Tarantino
Initial Prediction to Win: McCarthy & Singer
Personal Champion: Cooley, Docter, & LeFauve

Wow, Tarantino is out and a pleasantly surprising nomination for Ex Machina instead! Fantastic! This is the best surprise to me so far!

martian-tifrss0003frnleft-1001rrgb_0

BEST ADAPT. SCREENPLAY 

  • Emma Donoghue, Room
  • Drew Goddard, The Martian
  • Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
  • Adam McKay & Charles Randolph – The Big Short
  • Phyllis Nagy, Carol
  • Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

Missing: McKay & Randolph
Not Nominated: Sorkin
Initial Prediction to Win: Goddard
Personal Champion: Nagy

Not as pleasant a surprise, but since I never even predicted a Best Picture nomination for Steve Jobs, I guess I was just really expecting it to be based on Oscar’s love for Sorkin. But now that we’ve reached a year where both Sorkin and Tarantino have had a movie out and missed writing nominations, anything can happen!

embrace_of_the_serpent

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • Labyrinth of Lies
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul
  • Theeb
  • A War

Missing: Theeb
Not Nominated: Labyrinth of Lies
Initial Prediction to Win: Son of Saul
I have not seen any of these movies yet and have no champion.

Not even a fragment of a chance for The Assassin.

No Assassin like nobody’s business, but the nomination for the Jordanian Theeb gives the Arab world some representation so I can dig it a bit. Still I need to see these films… especially Son of Saul was in my Cannes-hound eye for a while.

anomalisa

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy & the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There
  • The Peanuts Movie

Missing: Boy & the WorldShaun the Sheep MovieWhen Marnie Was There
Not Nominated: The Peanuts Movie
Initial Prediction to Win: Inside Out
Initial Personal Champion: Shit, I’m between Inside Out and Boy & the World.

I was way too pessimistic about the chances of the non-American, non-English pictures, but… love to The Peanuts Movie aside, this is a fantastic slate that I’m glad for. Especially to see Boy & the World and When Marnie Was There get their due.

312948_017

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Amy
  • Best of Enemies
  • Cartel Land
  • Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Missing: What Happened, Miss Simone? and Winter on Fire
Not Nominated: Best of Enemies and Going Clear
Initial Prediction to Win: Amy
I have only seen two of these, but I think The Look of Silence is unflappable and Amy is kind of ethically challenged, so is there any doubt about what I’m rooting for?

I already know how it’ll go. The Look of Silence will lose at the ceremony and I will cry.

No to the politics and especially no to the documentary that hits against a major Hollywood-based institution and played primarily on television. I don’t know why I was surprised, because in retrospect, I shouldn’t be at Going Clear‘s snub. Meh, I got no other feelings for it. The Look of Silence deserved it more than anyone.

sicario

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Roger Deakins, Sicario
  • Edward Lachman, Carol
  • Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
  • Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
  • John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

Initial Prediction to Win: Deakins
Personal Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Mad Max: Fury Road

I think Oscar’s love for Spielberg may be strong enough to have Janusz Kaminski muscle the relatively unimpressive (in The Hateful Eight) Richardson out, but Kaminski wasn’t a revelation either and everybody else here is pretty damn rock solid in their spot.

What did I tell ya? WHAT DID I TELL YA? Anyway, to go along with my going with this semi-unexpected but proven to be truthful slate, even though there’s a lot of love for Lubezki’s work this year, I don’t think Oscar will be keen on streaks enough to let the dude get a third consecutive one. Deakins has lost way too many times and people are also giving huge raves for him. It may be Deakins’ year. We’ll see if I feel similar come Oscar week.

spotlight

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Hank Corwin – The Big Short
  • Tom McArdle – Spotlight
  • Stephen Mirrione – The Revenant
  • Pietro Scalia – The Martian
  • Margaret Sixel – Mad Max: Fury Road

Missing: Brandon and Markey
Not Nominated: Scalia
Initial Prediction: McArdle
Personal Champion (haven’t seen The Revenant): Sixel

I feel I’m really betting a bit too much against The Revenant to be comfortable (especially on Best Picture), but I’m wondering if Oscar wants those streaks again. I have a whole month to muse on this. Look, Star Wars nomination! *runs off*

eddie-redmayne-alicia-vikander-the-danish-girl

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Jenny Beavan – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Paco Delgado – The Danish Girl
  • Odile Dicks-Mireaux – Brooklyn
  • Kate Hawley – Crimson Peak
  • Sandy Powell – Carol
  • Sandy Powell – Cinderella
  • Jacqueline West – The Revenant

Missing: Beavan and West
Not Nominated: Dicks-Mireaux and Hawley
Initial Prediction and Personal Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Powell for Carol

Do I think Mad Max: Fury Road deserves a nomination here? Yes, but I think it deserves a nomination everywhere anyway. I think it deserves a nomination for fucking Guitar Guy in Best Original Song. Do I think it will get that nomination here, even if its in the visual element? No. Not with Sandy Powell double-threating and all the other lovely period works that this category has adoration for.

Man, do I love being proven wrong. I haven’t seen Crimson Peak yet so I don’t if it deserves the loss as much, but I’m glad to see Beavan up there.

HATEFUL EIGHT 2

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Carter Burwell – Carol
  • Alexandre Desplat – The Danish Girl
  • Johann Johannsson – Sicario
  • Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight
  • Thomas Newman – Bridge of Spies
  • John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Missing: Johannsson
Not Nominated: Desplat
Initial Prediction and Personal Champion: Morricone

In my dreams, Michael Giacchino is surprisingly announced tomorrow morning for Jupiter Ascending but nobody wants to admit they liked anything from that movie. Nobody except me.

Desplat’s score was my first disappointment from the man in a long time, so I have no qualms with his lack of nomination (I still dream of Giacchino). And love for both Carol and Burwell aside (they’re totally my second place here in this category), but I just can’t put down a good Morricone score, no matter what movie it’s from.

heres-how-the-insane-vehicles-were-created-in-mad-max-fury-road

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Jack Fisk, The Revenant
  • Colin Gibson, Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Arthur Max, The Martian
  • Eve Stewart, The Danish Girl
  • Adam Stockhausen, Bridge of Spies
  • Ethan Tobman, Room

Missing: Fisk
Not Nominated: Tobman
Initial Prediction and Personal Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Gibson

Aw man, I thought Tobman was worth a nomination. Oh well, welcome back to the side of the nominees, Fisk, and I trust when I see the movie tomorrow, you won’t disappoint me.

bg

BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP

  • Black Mass
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Mr. Holmes
  • The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  • The Revenant

Missing: Mad Max and The Revenant 
Not Nominated: Black Mass and Mr. Holmes 
Initial Prediction: Hundred-Year-Old Man
I’ve only seen Mad Max.

Dat lock on dem locks.

Well, not as locked as I thought at all. Got damn. Well, it’s anybody’s guess.

bridge-of-spies-movie

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road 
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Straight Outta Compton
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Missing: The Martian
Not Nominated: Straight Outta Compton
Initial Prediction and Personal Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Mad Max: Fury Road

I guess a music biopic doesn’t cement a Sound Mixing nomination as much as one would expect. I don’t have much of a bother out of this slate either.

REVENANT 4

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • The Hateful Eight
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Missing: Sicario
Not Nominated: The Hateful Eight
Initial Prediction to Win: The Revenant
Personal Champion (not having seen The Revenant): Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Ok, I guess. I mean, Sicario probably belongs to be on here, but not at the loss of the chilly soundscape of The Hateful Eight, I feel.

avengers-assembled

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Avengers: Age of Ultron
  • Jurassic World
  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Missing: Ex Machina and The Revenant
Not Nominated: Avengers: Age of Ultron and Jurassic World
Initial Prediction to Win and Personal Champion (I’m sure The Revenant not being considered by me yet is a given, right?): Mad Max: Fury Road

Because bigger is better, amirite?

Wowee, I did not expect the snub for Jurassic World. It looks like the Oscars are playing a lot smarter with more subtle effects and leanings towards the ambitiously practical more than the outright CGI (though of course all of these films have some notable CGI work). And more Ex Machina nominations make me a happy man.

AND THE REST OF THE THINGS I DON’T NEARLY HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT…

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Cold One” – Ricki & the Flash
  • “Love Me Like You Do” – Fifty Shades of Grey
  • “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
  • “Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
  • “See You Again” – Furious 7
  • “Simple Song #3” – Youth
  • “’Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground
  • “Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

Missing: “Earned It”, “Manta Ray”, and “Writing’s on the Wall”
Not Nominated: “Cold One”, “See You Again” and “Love Me Like You Do”
Initial Prediction: “Writing’s on the Wall”
Personal Champion: “Simple Song #3”

So I got the wrong Fifty Shades song and good god, are we so absent of worth nominees that “Writing’s on the Wall” gets a nomination? Ick.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Bear Story
  • If I Was God…
  • Sanjay’s Super Team
  • We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • World of Tomorrow

Initial Prediction to Win: Sanjay’s Super Team 
Initial Champion (having not seen Cosmos or If I Was God…): World of Tomorrow

Oh boy oh boy, another Hertzfeldt nomination!

I love it when a plan comes together. Honestly, even the ones I haven’t seen look really good.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Body Team 12
  • Chau, Beyond the Lines
  • Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  • A Girl in the River – The Price of Forgiveness
  • Lady Day of Freedom
  • Minerita
  • My Enemy My Brother

Missing: Chau and Last Day of Freedom
Not Nominated: Minerita and My Enemy My Brother
Initial Prediction to Win: Last Day of Freedom or Lanzmann
I have not seen any of the nominations.

Claude Lanzmann has all the things Oscar loves – using this category to look at atrocities of history + Oscar’s penchant for loving movie history. And he needs to be given his due.

Lanzmann’s win may be seen as an unofficial honorary Oscar for his dedication to documenting the Holocaust, everything is a might touchy for Oscar, but in ’15, maybe the Academy will want to show their solidarity against racism (the huge lack of black nominees not withstanding) by letting Last Day of Freedom win.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
  • Ave Maria
  • Day One
  • Everything Will Be Okay
  • Shok
  • Stutterer

Initial Prediction to Win: Shok 
I have seen absolutely none of these and have so comments at all except…

Told ya so…

So what do YOU guys think? Accurate? Think you oughtta call bullshit on a few things. How about you guys? Do you have anything to say “told you so” to me about? Anything you doubted me where I proved my oracle skills? What are your thoughts on the slate overall? Glad? Sad? Gotta pee? Hit me up in the comments.

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2 thoughts on “STinG’s Last-Minute Predictions for Nominations in the 88th Academy Awards (w/ dem reactive revisions now)

  1. Ben Mendolsohn deserves a Best Actor nomination for Mississippi Grind, a relatively unimpressive movie made riveting by his performance. He’ll never get it because like in Tom Courtenay’s case the Academy doesn’t lean towards restrained, minimalist performances. Dude, what the fuck is with all this love for The Martian? I had a dream the other night that The Martian won every Oscar. They were announcing Best Actress and Eddie Redmayne said, “Fuck it, The Martian” and they played David Bowie’s Starman and Matt Damon and Ridley Scott started laughing hysterically while Charlotte Rampling got up and left. Rooney Mara was without a doubt THE lead in Carol so it makes no sense she’s campaigning for Supporting Actress. Also, I’m crossing my fingers for a Jacob Tremblay nomination but I doubt it will happen.

    • I haven’t seen Mississippi Grind (like usual, my 2015 intake has been pretty damn minimal – I have seen all the Best Picture nominees I’m predicting, thankfully, except The Revenant which I see on Friday). But one day, Mendelsohn will get his – he has been, along with Oscar Isaac and Fassbender, one of the most reliably brilliant actors in the business today.

      The Martian just seems like Oscar’s kind of movie and while I don’t think it deserves any of these nominations save for the Production Design and Visual Effects, it’s got so much unnecessary love for it that cements it in most of these categories. Still, I’m pretty sure this year is Leo’s year. Hopefully when I see the Revenant I don’t disagree with that sentiment.

      I think Carol is campaigning for Mara in both categories, so there is a very certain chance she could be nominated in Best Actress – but then she’d be overshadowing Rampling, who is the one I love most out of my predictions and would hate to see go. Still, anyway you cut it, so far it’s looking like Brie Larson’s award with the two Carol actresses splitting votes. And I’m fine with that. It’d be better than your nightmare.

      And, of course, Jacob Tremblay so deserves a nomination (he’s also kind of a co-lead, don’t you think?) every bit as much as Larson’s nomination. They both made Room.

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