Salim’s Broken Bike Lock of the Century of the Week – 88th Academy Awards REDUX

I HAVE NO FUCKING CLUE WHAT I AM DOING!

Seriously.

There are a few definite locks in the upcoming Oscars this Sunday but there is a lot of straight up free for alls where it could be anybody’s race. Especially the big prize tonight which has three main contenders and even a dark horse running for it.

And yet that makes things spicy and fun enough to make this year’s Oscar ceremony one I actually want to catch on television rather than follow on IMDb. The anticipation in how many awards just might swing way out of left-field makes me kind of anxious to show my predictions of Sunday evening’s results, but if I’m a psychic… DAWG, I’M A MOVIE PSYCHIC!!!

Well, the Oscars are behind us. I didn’t live-blog during it on here because, well, I was at a friend’s place watching it. Still, I want to make a note and reaction of everything that won and how far I came in predictions.

Basically Mad Max: Fury Road won everything. YEAH!!!!

oscars_poster_2016

Red indicates what my prediction is
Blue indicates which is my personal champion, the nominee I’m rooting for.

BEST PICTURE

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

Until this morning I was running on the idea that The Revenant would win based on its omen lapping of most of the awards. But Tim Brayton at Antagony and Ecstasy scared the shit out of me with his logic based on how each of the awards calculate their winner and now the PGA award The Big Short took seems most prophetic. Either way, Big Short or Revenant are the weakest in the bunch in my eye.

Fury Road will always be the winner in my heart, but even as the critics’ favorite, it looks right out from this view alongside Spotlight.

WINNER: Spotlight – Prediction Tally: 0/1

It’s a CHRISTMAS FUCKING MIRACLE!!! Neither The Big Short and The Revenant took the big prize and… while it ain’t Fury Road… Spotlight made the distance with only one other Oscar. Hallefallujah!

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Lenny Abrahamson – Room
  • Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – The Revenant
  • Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
  • Adam McKay – The Big Short
  • George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

All the good will Miller had for himself has been lapped right up by Inarritu’s awards streak. We get it, bro. You vape.

WINNER: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Prediction TaWlly: 1/2

What a surprise.

BEST ACTOR

  • Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
  • Matt Damon – The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

OK, like, there’s certainly the chance DiCaprio’s curse will turn out to be a real thing, but come on. It’s the first year where it’s actually sitting there in a silver platter waiting for him to take it home with him. He’s disappointing but man… those other guys are disappointing.

WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio – Prediction Tally: 2/3

Whelp, R.I.P. to those Leo Oscar memes. Wish we knew in time for the Memorium. My mom will be so happy.

At least props to him using his speech to talk about Global Warming and Environmental protection. Even if it’s obvious that the music guys weren’t gonna cut him off.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett – Carol
  • Brie Larson – Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Man, I love all of these performances. Did 2016 use up all its energy on brilliant leading actress performances? ‘Cause got damn, I can’t tell if this is my favorite slate of the year…

WINNER: Brie Larson – Prediction Tally: 3/4

Larson is a class act and deserves it. Everybody on that slate deserves it, but Larson’s win should not be undermined. Plus when she went to hug everybody who was on stage for Lady Gaga’s performance and her friendship with Jacob Tremblay makes me like her more as a person.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Roger Deakins – Sicario
  • Edward Lachman – Carol
  • Emmanuel Lubezki – The Revenant
  • Robert Richardson – The Hateful Eight
  • John Seale – Mad Max: Fury Road

… or if this is my favorite slate of the year? I mean, I don’t mean to cut in, but this is some damn good selections. In both cases, it’s pretty obvious who is getting the nomination (and Chivo’s certainty hurts just a bit ’cause Deakins may be out of the count soon), but m’got damn, not any of the other nominees winning in these two slates would bug me in the slightest.

WINNER: Emmanuel Lubezki – Prediction Tally: 4/5

Again, no surprises here. I am a bit sad about Deakins probably not going to get a shot next year, but hey, one day Deakins ought to get it. Just. Don’t. Die.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christian Bale – The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy – The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone – Creed

With four of these characters based on real people, it bemuses me that three of them are practically fucking cartoons. While Rylance gives himself a detached humor based on Abel, at least he does it with restraint. Still, the prize is totally going to Stallone and all the more cheer for him, since that’s quite a lovely turn for a familiar character.

WINNER: Mark Rylance – Prediction Tally: 4/6

What a shocker! Stallone was ripping all the nominations out of Rylance’s hands until the big time. He didn’t look very pleased, but it’s ok, Stallone! You’re still great!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara – Carol
  • Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

LOOKIT ALL THAT CATEGORY FRAUD! I mean, it’s clearly running to be Vikander’s year, so I guess it paid off for The Danish Girl‘s campaign, but the only actress who could say they’re in the right spot is Winslet and they’re all way better than Vikander’s performance in The Danish Girl, but Oscar likes her.

WINNER: Alicia Vikander – Prediction Tally: 5/7

I really don’t have a reaction to this except to pretend it was for Ex Machina. I can’t figure out if this is the year of Larson or Vikander.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Emma Donaghue – Room
  • Drew Goddard – The Martian
  • Nick Hornby – Brooklyn
  • Adam McKay and Charles Randolph – The Big Short
  • Phyllis Nagy – Carol

THIS SUCKS! But of course, I can’t predict a movie will ONLY win Best Picture.

WINNER: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph – Prediction Tally: 6/8

Adam McKay’s a big guy. I probably wouldn’t talk shit about his movies in his face. I would still do it, though.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Matt Charman and Joel and Ethan Coen – Bridge of Spies
  • Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen – Inside Out
  • Alex Garland – Ex Machina
  • Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, and Alan Wenkus – Straight Outta Compton
  • Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy – Spotlight 

Hopefully the first award of the night where Oscar and I will see eye to eye. Well, not really since I kind of think the script doesn’t move me as much as I’d like, but it doesn’t have as many flaws as the rest of these nominees (some more than others).

WINNER: Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy – Prediction Tally: 7/9

This was a blur to me because it was so damn obvious. My friend Josh was saying “‘Original’? But these all happened!” and I couldn’t help laughing. He also was mad Spotlight won stuff.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy and the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There

WHAT THEY SAY: “Inside Out/Anomalisa deserve the Oscar.”
WHAT I HEAR: “I didn’t see Boy and the World.”
OK, that’s kind of unfair. I really really loved Inside Out and I make no secret of that, but Boy and the World is such a perfect little gem.

WINNER: Inside Out – Prediction Tally: 8/10

Boy and the World was never going to win. Inside Out was amazing. I will take this in stride. I saw a facebook status that said “All I wanted was to see beloved Pixar characters announce the winner to be the movie where puppets fuck.”

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FEATURE

  • Embrace of the Serpent
  • Mustang
  • Son of Saul
  • Theeb
  • A War

I only saw Mustang so far. In any case, this is still the stone-cold lock of the night and I’m gonna be grumbling loudly that it belongs to that shortlist-snub The Assassin, no matter how good they all are.

WINNER: Son of Saul – Prediction Tally: 9/11

Duh. It ain’t no Palme d’Or, but at least it won the popularity contest against Dheepan.

Truth be told, it looks like every movie is winning the popularity contest against Dheepan. I hope Dheepan is good when I see it in a few weeks.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter’s on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Yeah… let’s all reward Kapadia for being a such a disrespectfully imposing person towards one of the most reclusive living tragedies in recent music. That’s some good stuff. It’ll be the second time Oppenheimer’s brilliance loses out to a doc about pop music and, unlike the last time, this will leave me with an awful taste in my mouth. Maybe not if Miss Simone takes the gold, but that’s not likely to happen. Even if we ignore how blatantly the Academy made their feelings clear about Netflix when they snubbed Idris Elba, Amy is more popular than any of the nominees by a large margin.

WINNER: Amy – Prediction Tally: 10/12

FUCK THAT MOVIE!!!! OPPENHEIMER, NUMBER ONE!!!!

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Body Team 12
  • Chau, Beyond the Lines
  • Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  • A Girl in the River – The Price of Forgiveness
  • Last Day of Freedom

OK, time for the really categories where I’m really swinging wildly. Chau is the only one I’ve seen and it seems sobering and weighty enough to take the prize in the most surface way. I mean… a short about Claude Lanzmann seems that way too, but it sounds like it’s getting a lot of dismissal and that means something here.

WINNER: A Girl in the River – The Price of Forgiveness – Prediction Tally: 10/13

Whelp, one short wrong. At least it tickled me to see my name in special thanks roll.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

  • Ave Maria
  • Day One
  • Everything Will Be Okay 
  • Shok
  • Stutterer

I’ve seen them all and they all fucking suck, so I’ll be damned if I pick a champion. I guess I’ll be less mad if Shok wins, but maybe that’s just because I’m sure the whole serious tale about kids thing will attract Oscar voters.

WINNER: Stutterer – Prediction Tally: 10/14

Whelp! Two shorts wrong. Everybody was predicting Stutterer too so I think it’s my own damn fault for not guessing it, but there we have it. I wanted to be so left-field.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

  • Bear Story
  • Prologue
  • Sanjay’s Super Team
  • We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
  • World of Tomorrow

It’s probably my inner optimism leading me to picking one of the latest entries in my personal canon to take this award, but it’s also the most popular entry yet again with some serious critical love. If that can work for Amy, that MUST work for Hertzfeldt’s overdue Oscar.

WINNER: Bear Story – Prediction: 10/15

All three short categories wrong and this one may actually make me cri mane.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Carter Burwell – Carol
  • Johann Johannsson – Sicario
  • Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight
  • Thomas Newman – Bridge of Spies
  • John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

This is the first Star Wars score nobody really loves, Oscar clearly feels more obligated to give Carol nominations than committed to letting it win, Newman winning will be just silly. Between Johannsson and Morricone (both easily the best in this slate), we know there’s nothing like a good ol’ Morricone Western score and it’s about damn time the Academy caught up to it.

WINNER: Ennio Morricone – Prediction Tally: 11/16

The Legend earned it. No playoff music for him either.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  • “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
  • “Simple Song #3” from Youth
  • “‘Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
  • “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre

It is extremely telling when two of the nominees are cut off from the broadcast in performing (unfortunately the Asian performer – the only nominee here that’s actually good imo – and the transgender performer, which makes the Oscars look hella worse in my eyes than they already did from #OscarsSoWhite). In favor of Dave Grohl. I mean, much love to Dave Grohl but… seriously Academy?

In any case, Fifty Shades of Grey has enough baggage to avoid any Oscar win leaving just “Writing” and “Happens”. Lady Gaga is super popular enough with the addition of having regular nominee Diane Warren as a co-writer and, while some people may disagree with me that “Simple Song #3” is the only one worth a damn, anybody with ears can tell that “Writing’s on the Wall” is one of the worst things to happen to music and movies in a long time and it’s clearly just cashed-in on Sony’s dime. Sorry, buddy, it’s an honor to be nominated.

WINNER: “Writing’s on the Wall” – Prediction Tally: 11/17

The Academy doesn’t have ears, only fucking pockets. That was a godawful song and it’s made all the worst in my mind because of Lady Gaga’s powerful performance during the show. Fucking bullshit.

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Sicario
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I don’t fucking know. Mad Max is the loudest of the bunch so it wins!

WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road – Prediction Tally: 12/18

Lucky guess.

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • Bridges of Spies
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I. DO NOT. FUCKING. KNOW. Mad Max is once again the loudest, plus Doof Warrior is the most memorable thing about it. When in doubt, go with the “most”. In any case, the sounds are only going with the only two Best Picture nominees that have a shot at the title: Max and Revenant and I see Max getting it more.

WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road – Prediction Tally: 13/18

Lucky guess.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Jack Fisk – The Revenant
  • Colin Gibson – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Arthur Max – The Martian
  • Eve Stewart – The Danish Girl
  • Adam Stockhausen – Bridge of Spies

Once again, going with the “most” principle. Any movie is going to win except Max and Martian (though I think Bridge has some kind of chance and wouldn’t be bothered by its win). What, the movie with trees will get it?

WINNER: Colin Gibson – Prediction Tally: 14/19

Hell yeah, witness that witness!

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

  • The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Revenant

Because I only want Mad Max to get everything because hell with The Revenant, but it’s foolish to pretend it won’t at least get some kind of push in technical awards.

WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road – Prediction Tally: 14/20

Aw yissss!!! I love being wrong

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Jenny Beavan – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Paco Delgado – The Danish Girl
  • Sandy Powell – Carol
  • Sandy Powell – Cinderella
  • Jacqueline West – The Revenant

“Most” principle again… Max‘s shot at Production Design promises that the crazy costumes will catch voter eyes as well. Danish Girl and Cinderella seem to have a shot as well, but… I dunno, Cinderella‘s nomination alone is just silly in my eyes.

WINNER: Jenny Beavan – Prediction Tally: 15/21

My friend Erickh from A Night at the Opera said everybody who’s winning for Mad Max: Fury Road looks like a character from Mad Max: Fury Road. Jenny Beavan walked up the stage wearing a leather jacket that had the War Boys insignia in sequins behind it and a scarf. So I guess, yeah.

But I don’t even care! I love that it’s mostly women winning for the movie too!

BEST FILM EDITING

  • MaryAnn Brandon and Mary Jo Markey – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Hank Corwin – The Big Short
  • Tom McArdle – Spotlight
  • Stephen Mirrione – The Revenant
  • Margaret Sixel – Mad Max: Fury Road

Everything about me wants to claim Mad Max will win it, logic dictates The Revenant will win it, but if I’m going to stick to my influenced by hearsay guns, I can’t pretend The Big Short will lose this if it gets Best Picture. Especially considering all its super-show-off editing styles going about “lol we saw The Wolf of Wall Street“.

WINNER: Margaret Sixel – Prediction Tally: 15/22

I really love being wrong! Especially since George Miller’s wife winning the Oscar means that now they’ll still have one in their household. WHOOOOOOOTTTTTT!!!! WITNESS!!!!

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Ex Machina
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Let’s be for real, it’s got to go to one of the Best Picture nominees. Ex Machina being nominated is sheer luck and Star Wars is disappearing from memory quickly – namely the first CGI character performed by Andy Serkis that didn’t feel like a character at all. I don’t know, maybe Star Wars can win, but the nominees themselves are all pretty effects-heavy themselves. The Revenant‘s bear is unconvincing at points and the only real effects moment, but if it wins this award, it’s certain to win Picture. The Martian lost all its goodwill. And I’m sure they’ll want to give Miller’s ambition some recognition short of giving him the Director award so I’m hoping for Fury Road which would not make me sad at all.

Really the whole slate is good (though not as great as cinematography and Actress). I’m just throwing a fucking dart here. It’s 4 am here. I have nothing more to say. Why do you think I’m not even putting in pictures?

WINNER: Ex Machina

OH MAN! Biggest surprise of the night and well deserved! I would have never expected Ex Machina to go home with any of the Oscars, but for it to go to the one that most intelligently and restrainedly applies its VFX to the story and not vice-verse…. that’s some real thoughtful voting for once.

Hell with it, the ceremony is going to be really shocking no matter what. I’m always going to be surprised with this, so let’s make it happen. See you there.

FINAL PREDICTION TALLY: 15/23

I really went off the mark with this one, but that’s fine. Most of the unexpected ones are pleasant surprises. It was actually a hell of ride from the win to Ex Machina to Stacy Dash’s appearance confounding me (I…. ugh…) to Louis CK jokingly calling Mad Max: Fury Road winner of Best Documentary Short.

Yep… this was a damn weird show and I was glad I caught it.

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