Predictions for the 89th Academy Awards

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Yeah yeah yeah, I know I’m pushing it doing these the night before but I had a lot to do. It’s not like we don’t already know what’s gonna win, this is almost certainly the most straightforward season in a long while.

BEST PICTURE

  • Arrival
  • Fences
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • Hidden Figures
  • La La Land
  • Lion
  • Manchester by the Sea
  • Moonlight

Will Win and My Pick: La La Land

If we’re going to entertain any fantasies, it will be that Moonlight had the best chance of winning, but the Oscars are still old white people who get icky over homosexuality (Brokeback Mountain, never forget). Props to Cheryl Boone Isaacs for the changes she made, but that shit doesn’t happen overnight. In any case, the La La Land hot takes are getting so fucking tiring that I’m gonna be happy to be drinking the tears of its haters as it sweeps the Oscars and that’s while acknowledging that I’m really not over the moon for any of these nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  • Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
  • Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
  • Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
  • Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Will Win and My Pick: Damien Chazelle

Once upon a time, I would have entertained the idea that we would have our first black Best Director win, but it looks like shit’s gonna be really simple here.

BEST ACTOR

  • Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling – La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington – Fences

Will Win: Denzel Washington
Should Win: Casey Affleck

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaan, this one has me split. Like torn in half. Casey Affleck has been SWEEEEEEEEEPING until the SAG award was taken by Washington. And 12 of the last 13 winners of Best Actor won the SAG award as well. Now, normally my rule of thumb is to go by the logic “The Academy hates black people”, but everybody is so confident that Washington’s win + the baggage of Casey Affleck’s sexual harassment allegations means a win for Washington and so I’ve witnessed it enough to be peer pressured.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  • Ruth Negga – Loving
  • Natalie Portman – Jackie
  • Emma Stone – La La Land
  • Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone
Should Win: Natalie Portman

Once upon a time, the prospect of Huppert winning on the tail of her Golden Globes surprise made me giddy as a schoolboy and then that BAFTA win brought me back to reality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel – Lion
  • Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Will Win and Should Win: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Viola Davis – Fences
  • Naomie Harris – Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman – Lion
  • Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: Viola Davis

Nobody in their right mind would dispute these predictions.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Damian Chazelle – La La Land
  • Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthimis Filippou – The Lobster
  • Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
  • Mike Mills – 20th Century Women
  • Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water

Will Win: Kenneth Lonergan
Should Win: Lanthimos/Filippou

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Luke Davies – Lion
  • Eric Heisserer – Arrival
  • Barry Jenkins & Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moonlight
  • Allison Schroeder & Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures
  • August Wilson – Fences

Will Win: Jenkins/McCraney
Should Win: Wilson

Hate on me later, but you can’t beat Wilson even if you try. In any case, you don’t get to being the closest horses to La La Land without taking SOMETHING home with you, I’d like to think, and I’m sure the industry has long decided Lonergan is due for something even in this year’s young man’s game.

And I’m so happy McCraney is getting a statue. MacArthur Genius AND Oscar Winner (and perhaps Lin-Manuel Miranda can join him later that night).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Moana
  • My Life as a Zucchini
  • The Red Turtle
  • Zootopia

Will Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • 13th
  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • O.J.: Made in America

Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Should Win: 13th

Locked like chastity belts and I ain’t happy about with of them, but whatever.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FEATURE

  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove
  • The Salesman
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann

Will Win: The Salesman
Should Win: Toni Erdmann

Once upon a time, my favorite movie of the year had so much love behind it that it was locked for that win and then Trump went and acted a fucking prick with his horrible immigration ban that prevented the ever-so-talented Asghar Farhadi from attending the ceremony. And now it’s pretty awful clear that the Academy wants to stand by with people and make a statement. It may involve awarding a lesser (but still great) film, but I’m behind it. Excuse me, while I cry for Toni Erdmann in my shower.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Nicholas Britell – Moonlight
  • Justin Hurwitz – La La Land
  • Mica Levi – Jackie
  • Dustin O’Halloran & Hauschka – Lion
  • Thomas Newman – Passengers

Will Win: Hurwitz
Should Win: Levi

Lemme put it this way… if La La Land – the fucking Best Picture frontrunner that’s a musical – doesn’t win this award, it probably won’t win Best Picture. Y’know, given its status as a musical… y’know.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Audition (The Fools That Dream)” – La La Land
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
  • “City of Stars” – La La Land
  • “The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story
  • “How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Will Win: “City of Stars”
Should Win: “Audition (The Fools That Dream)”

Yeah, remember when I said Miranda might join McCraney as an Oscar-winning MacArthur Genius? That ain’t happening, but it would be impressive and I wouldn’t be upset to see it happen. Still, like I said… the Best Picture frontrunner is a musical.

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: 13 Hours

This is generally where war movies and musicals win their due, especially when they’re both Best Picture nominees. I mean… this will be the most garbage of La La Land‘s wins and the only one where I’ll be mad, but whatever.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Doctor Strange
  • The Jungle Book
  • Kubo and the Two Strings
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will Win and Should Win: The Jungle Book

Miracle of modern science that one, though all of these picks are stellar.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Greig Fraser – Lion
  • James Laxton – Moonlight
  • Linus Sandgren – La La Land
  • Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
  • Bradford Young – Arrival

Will Win: Sandgren
Should Win: Prieto

Ehhhhhhhhhhh……..

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

  • A Man Called Ove
  • Star Trek Beyond
  • Suicide Squad

Will Win and Should WinStar Trek Beyond

We don’t wanna live in a world where we say Oscar Winner Suicide Squad. Next.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers

Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Hail, Caesar!

We are entering the year of the La La Land.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land

Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: Jackie

MOAR BLUD FFORE LALALAND.

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Arrival
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • Hell or High Water
  • La La Land
  • Moonlight

Will Win and Should Win: La La Land

AVAST! THE PRIZE!

BEST SHORT DOC

  • 4.1 Miles
  • Extremis
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets

Will Win: Joe’s Violin
Should Win: 4.1 Miles

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl
  • Piper

Will Win and Should Win: Piper

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

  • Ennemis Interieurs
  • La Femme et le TGV
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode

Will Win: Ennemis Interieurs
Should Win: Timecode

I’ve seen these so now I have only a slighter idea what I’m doing.

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