Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

You know how it is, let’s do this.

BEST PICTURE

  • Call Me by Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTION: The Shape of Water
MY PICK: Phantom Thread

There’s still talk of it being a five-horse race or something and I just don’t see it happening at all. The only two horses I see battling in this is Shape of Water and Three Billboards, with the momentum highly in Shape of Water‘s failure while Billboards is tripped up by its lack of Director nomination. The only possible thing in Shape of Water‘s way at this point is the blunt fact that it’s a movie about fucking a fish, but c’mon… my mom loves the fish-fucking movie. My mom is not the sort of person who’d love a fish-fucking movie. The fish-fucking movie is taking it.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
  • Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water
  • Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
  • Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
  • Jordan Peele – Get Out

PREDICTION: Guillermo Del Toro
MY PICK: Paul Thomas Anderson

If I had time-travelled four years into the past to let past me know that I was going to be rooting for Paul Thomas Anderson to win over Guillermo Del Toro, Past Me would have shot Future Me thinking he was an imposter. And yet here we are and while Del Toro is possibly my least favorite entry in this slate (I’m honestly not too fond of Gerwig’s direction myself), I’m still more than ready to see a filmmaker I adore who has an open heart for cinema win his Oscar. I’ll pretend it’s for The Devil’s Backbone or Cronos instead, but just because he made one movie I’m not a fan of doesn’t mean I stop being a Del Toro fan by any means.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep – The Post

PREDICTION AND MY PICK: Frances McDormand

Have we ever had another Oscar Season where every single one of the categories felt as locked as they do here? I mean, the Actor category is a bit shaky but I’ll get to that in a moment. Meanwhile, Frances is on her way to a second Oscar and boy would it have been great to see her give Casey Affleck an earful if he hadn’t chickened out.

BEST ACTOR

  • Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
  • Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

PREDICTION: Gary Oldman
MY PICK: Having not seen Washington’s performance, I’m going with Daniel Day-Lewis. I’m also giving longing looks to Kaluuya.

So, do we think the Oscars give a damn enough about Oldman being a dick to not give him his career Oscar? I don’t.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
  • Allison Janney – I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

PREDICTION: Allison Janney
MY PICK: Lesley Manville

*shrug* I can see Metcalf maybe inching in, but Janney seems set on that award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTION: Same Rockwell
MY PICK: Willem Dafoe

*shrug* lock.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Guillermo Del Toro & Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
  • Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
  • Kumail Nanjiani & Emily V. Gordon – The Big Sick
  • Jordan Peele – Get Out
  • Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

PREDICTION: Martin McDonagh
MY PICK: Jordan Peele

This is kind of anybody’s call. But I can’t see Three Billboards only winning acting Oscars, even if this is possibly the only place we can also expect Gerwig and Peele to take things home.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Scott Frank, James Mangold, & Michael Green – Logan
  • James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name
  • Scott Nuestadter & Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist
  • Dee Rees & Virgil Williams – Mudbound
  • Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game

PREDICTION: James Ivory
MY PICK: Dee Rees & Virgil Williams

The one best Picture nominee here versus a not-that-well-celebrated Sorkin and three other nominees just lucky to be there? I mean, come on.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • The Boss Baby
  • The Breadwinner
  • Coco
  • Ferdinand
  • Loving Vincent

PREDICTION: Coco
MY PICK: Loving Vincent

L-O-C-K.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

  • A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  • The Insult (Lebanon)
  • Loveless (Russia)
  • On Body and Soul (Hungary)
  • The Square (Sweden)

PREDICTION: A Fantastic Woman
I have no pick because I saw less than half of these movies.

It would probably feel like an insult to invite the star of A Fantastic Woman to present without giving her the aware in consideration of the distance she’s traveling and the politics. It’s also just the most beloved of the nominees by a lot. I could see The Square – with its Palme d’Or mileage – taking it, but pls no.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
  • Faces Places
  • Icarus
  • Last Men in Aleppo
  • Strong Island

PREDICTION: Faces Places
MY PICK: Faces Places

I have too much hope and maybe my head is just so much in the sand, but like… Faces Places is so likable. The only weird thing is the idea of her winning an Honorary Oscar AND a competitive Oscar in the same ceremony, but I dream for the best nominee in the whole ceremony.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
  • Bruno Delbonnel – Darkest Hour
  • Hoyte van Hoytema – Dunkirk
  • Dan Laustsen – The Shape of Water
  • Rachel Morrison – Mudbound

PREDICTION: Dan Laustsen
MY PICK: Bruno Delbonnel

This feels a lot more open game than you’d expect, which should be promising to Deakins except he’s also Deakins and he’s going up against three Best Picture nominees. I picked the one certain to win Best Picture just to pad its numbers up a bit even though I’m not convinced it ain’t the worst looking of these nominees.

BEST PREDICTION DESIGN

  • Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, & Jeff Melvin – The Shape of Water
  • Nathan Crowley & Gary Fettis – Dunkirk
  • Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola – Blade Runner 2049
  • Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer – Beauty and the Beast
  • Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer – Darkest Hour

PREDICTION: Paul Austerberry, Shane Vieau, & Jeff Melvin
MY PICK: Dennis Gassner & Alessandra Querzola

The Shape of Water gotta rolling up them Oscars like Pokémon if it wanna win the big boy awards. Gotta flex.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Consolata Boyle – Victoria & Abdul
  • Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread
  • Jacqueline Durran – Beauty and the Beast
  • Jacqueline Durran – Darkest Hour
  • Luis Sequera – The Shape of Water

PREDICTION: Mark Bridges
MY PICK: Mark Bridges

I’m going by the logic that the Academy has eyes, but they did fucking nominate Beauty and the Beast.

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Jon Gregory – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos – Baby Driver
  • Tatiana S. Riegel – I, Tonya
  • Lee Smith – Dunkirk
  • Sidney Wolinsky – The Shape of Water

PREDICTION: Lee Smith
MY PICK: Paul Machliss & Jonathan Amos

War film that’s also a Best Picture nominee and an structural experiment? It’s pretty damn obvious.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Carter Burwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water
  • Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
  • John Williams – Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk

PREDICTION: Alexandre Desplat
MY PICK: Alexandre Desplat

I still throw up a bit in my mouth looking at this slate and so I had to pick one of the two nominees that don’t give me hives to maintain my sanity.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

  • Darkest Hour
  • Victoria & Abdul
  • Wonder

PREDICTION: Darkest Hour
MY PICK: I’m good, fam.

LOOK AT DOSE JOWLZ… LOOK AT DE WAY OLDMAN SHAKES EM WHEN HE BARKS.

BEST SOUND MIXING

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

PREDICTION: Dunkirk
MY PICK: Dunkirk

BEST SOUND EDITING

  • Baby Driver
  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Dunkirk
  • The Shape of Water
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi

PREDICTION: Dunkirk
MY PICK: Dunkirk

War! Huh! Yeah! What is it good for? Sounding real fucking good!

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
  • Kong: Skull Island
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • War for the Planet of the Apes

PREDICTION: Blade Runner 2049
MY PICK: War for the Planet of the Apes

Man, this is way impossible to take a shot at and I’m just really hoping Star Wars doesn’t get it because if there’s a reason The Last Jedi disappointed me, it’s in the effects.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Mighty River” – Mudbound
  • “Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
  • “Remember Me” – Coco
  • “Stand Up for Something” – Marshall
  • “This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman

PREDICTION: “Remember Me”
MY PICK: I’m good, fam.

“This Is Me” is kind of treated as a joke, isn’t it? It’s the only one that can possibly knock off Coco, but I’ve never heard somebody say something nice about that song.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

  • Dekalb Elementary
  • The Eleven O’Clock
  • My Nephew Emmett
  • The Silent Child
  • Watu Wote/All of Us

PREDICTION: Dekalb Elementary

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Dear Basketball
  • Garden Party
  • Lou
  • Negative Space
  • Revolting Rhymes

PREDICTION: Negative Space

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Edith+Eddie
  • Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Heroin(e)
  • Knife Skills
  • Traffic Stop

PREDICTION: Heroin(e)

As always, I am approaching the short films from an angle of “I HAVE NO FUCKING IDEA WHAT I’M DOING”. I just picked Dekalb and Heroin(e) out of “Importance” as a rubric. I mean, Traffic Stop could still clear that rubric too but from what I heard, it doesn’t have much else going for it, so…

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