I ain’t got much time to talk about them but I like guessing games and so I’m gonna guess on what gets announced in the next few days by the Academy with maybe occasional observations on why I’m making the least bold mostly safe predictions. All I’m gonna say is… for a miracle of a year that it was, I am definitely looking at a disappointing race.
BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
Blackkklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
The Favourite
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
I’m not married to idea that Vice will show up on this slate but it’s definitely being passed around as a major contender and it doesn’t do to fuck with consensus. If it shows up, though, it will definitely end up the worst nominee on that slate… beneath even the favorite to win, Green Book. Everything else is practically a lock.
BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Spike Lee – Blackkklansman
Two things keep me from replacing the very weird Lanthimos with Adam McKay – 1. my uncertainty that Vice is a Best Picture nominee. 2. Sheer optimism.
And none for Bryan Singer, goodbye.
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close – The Wife
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Viola Davis – Widows
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Emily Blunt seems to be an apparent popular guess for the fifth spot of an otherwise closed-up slate, but I think Mary Poppins Returns lost a lot of awards momentum (even while Blunt stuck around) and that’s gonna be an anchor on her. It didn’t lose nearly as much momentum as Widows, but Viola Davis is an Oscar favorite.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Literally zero surprises are in store here, let’s move on.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Vice
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie – Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Bitter category fraud going on with The Favourite but if it’s the way to get all three amazing leads some attention, so be it. Margot Robbie is shakiest of the bunch but I can’t think of anybody who is a major threat to her besides Claire Foy and boy did First Man dive harder than any other Oscar hopeful.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver – Blackkklansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Boy, Oscar sure loves itself them true story movies. I mean, Chalamet is not a sure shot with Sam Rockwell’s Bush around the corner BUT Chalamet has been touring the precursors more.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara – The Favourite
Adam McKay – Vice
Paul Schrader – First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayed Currie, & Peter Farrelly – Green Book
I wonder if the Oscars really care that Schrader is an idiot who won’t shut up. I doubt it. If Vallelonga is a lock (which he sooooooo is), Schrader has a shot and he’s been getting more precursor love. Pour one out for Sorry to Bother You‘s only Oscar opportunity.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole – Black Panther
Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, & Will Fetters – A Star Is Born
Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, & Kevin Willmott – Blackkklansman
Seems safe and sturdy here. I particularly can’t imagine Black Panther making it to the Best Picture slate without a nomination in one of the big five unless the Academy wants to get slapped and here’s their best shot.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
The usual suspects: Disney, popular movies, favorite auteurs, one GKids slot.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
The Guilty (Denmark)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Picking the five contenders that I have heard talked about most has never proven to get me a 100 on this category so I guess the real fun is which movie is gonna be absent. My money is on The Guilty.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Not feeling this slate much besides Gap.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
James Paxton – If Beale Street Could Talk
Robbie Ryan – The Favourite
Linus Sandgren – First Man
Lukasz Zal – Cold War
IDK. Roma and The Favourite are for sure, Beale Street and First Man are pretty enough. Cold War is the longshot but I would love to see it snag the nom.
BEST FILM EDITING
Barry Alexander Brown – Blackkklansman
Jay Cassidy – A Star Is Born
Hank Corwin – Vice
Tom Cross – First Man
John Ottman – Bohemian Rhapsody
Definitely the “Most” rule, no offense to Brown who did tremendous work on Blackkklansman. The rest of these folks are fine (Cross and Ottman) to blegh (fucking Corwin… once upon a time you worked with Malick).
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hannah Beachler – Black Panther
Nelson Coates – Crazy Rich Asians
Nathan Crowley – First Man
Fiona Crombie – The Favourite
John Myrhe – Mary Poppins Returns
I am way too optimistic for Crazy Rich Asians to be recognized for the effective luxury porn it is.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne – Mary, Queen of Scots
Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther
Sandy Powell – The Favourite
Sandy Powell – Mary Poppins Returns
Mary E. Vogt – Crazy Rich Asians
I’d say I’m going with the “Most” rule except I legitimately think three of these movies have some of the best costume design I’ve seen all year and will definitely be sad if, say, Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t make the cut.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary, Queen of Scots
Vice
Oscarbait.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat – Isle of Dogs
Terrence Blanchard – Blackkklansman
Nicholas Britell – If Beale Street Could Talk
Ludwig Goransson – Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz – First Man
The possibility of A Quiet Place taking a spot here offends me more than all the Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody nominations in the world.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Obvious ones.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Pls give Fallout one.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen
*shrug*
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“All the Stars” – Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” – Dumplin’
“I’ll Fight” – RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow” – A Star Is Born
Pour one out for “Ashes” in Deadpool 2 and “Unmade” in Suspiria.
And I never know what I’m doing with the short categories so don’t grill me here.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
Lost & Found
One Small Step
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Endgame
My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Zion
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Chuchotage
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Skin
Movie Motorbreath 