My Final Predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards

The latest episode of A Night at the Opera (if you happened to catch it, I haven’t posted it here yet as I’ve moved the hosting to Anchor and I’m still figuring out the issue with embedding from there) saw Britt, Erickh, and myself providing predictions to tomorrow’s Oscar ceremonies, but as that was before I finished watching ALL the nominees (as I now have), I was kind of non-committal about my predictions and I’m sure it was obvious for all that you could hear me mumbling.

Now that I’m up and familiar with all of these nominees deeply, I feel a lot more confident in providing my final predictions for tomorrow’s ceremony… the deathly wrap-up of a deathly year showcasing the deathly offerings. Let’s get this year buried.

BEST PICTURE

  • The Father
  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Mank
  • Minari
  • Nomadland
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Sound of Metal
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Prediction: Nomadland

My Favourite: The Father

Snubs: First Cow, Emma., Tenet

My certainty in Nomadland‘s win here has been diminishing a bit as the conversation has sort of faded, but that feels more of a byproduct of this year’s ceremony feeling so much less of an EVENT in the wake of the year and the enthusiasm drying out. Besides which it feels like any major competitors it has – Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari, and Sound of Metal feeling like the most aggressive ones – will be spending more time splitting each others votes than stealing it. I’m not looking forward to it: Nomadland was among my most unpleasant watches of the past year and it’s getting harder and harder not to respond to continuing praise with “Oh come on!”.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
  • Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
  • David Fincher – Mank
  • Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
  • Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

My Prediction: Zhao

My Favorite: Fennell, though this is a remarkably unimpressive slate where none of the nominees feel strong to me.

Snubs: Kelly Reichardt, Christopher Nolan

Now this is a category where the confidence in my prediction hasn’t lowered one bit (in fact, I’m sure Disney is holding on the Eternals trailer just so they can attach an “Academy Award Winner Chloé Zhao” to it). And intellectually, I do believe it’s been about time that a woman of color has won the Best Director Academy Award in the 93 years since it’s existed but I just can’t root for a movie I vehemently disliked. It feels condescending and performative to all parties.

BEST ACTOR

  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father
  • Gary Oldman – Mank
  • Steven Yeun – Minari

My Prediction: Boseman

My Favorite: Ahmed

Snub: Delroy Lindo, probably the biggest snub of the whole ceremony in my eyes.

Just the most obvious narrative to hand it over to Boseman posthumously in recognition of his accomplishments during a much-too-short career.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland
  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

My Prediction: Mulligan

My Favorite: Davis by a country mile

Snub: Anya Taylor-Joy

Now this is actually a 50/50 chance for me: it felt so certain early in the season that McDormand would get a three-peat Oscar (especially given that Nomadland was her passion project) but Mulligan has the awards season momentum that truly seems to be threatening that assuredness. Guess that wave Mulligan has been making finally caught up to me with my final prediction going to her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami…
  • Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
  • Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

My Prediction: Kaluuya

My Favorite: Odom Jr.

I don’t really have a snub for this. I guess Aldis Hodge would count (I do like Odom Jr. in the movie but it is really wild to me that he has been getting more attention than Hodge), but he seems more a co-lead in One Night in Miami…. Which is to say the same of Odom Jr., Kaluuya, Cohen and Stanfield all being co-leads in their respective movies making this a hotbed of category fraud (I guess the Oscars think Jesse Plemons is the lead of Judas and the Black Messiah), but you know what? It is what it is and it’s that lack of true competition that ensures Kaluuya is set to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • Olivia Colman – The Father
  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank
  • Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

My Prediction: Youn

My Favorite: Youn

Snub: Helena Zengel

Momentum drive for Youn here, sorry Glenn.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Minari
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Sound of Metal
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Prediction: Promising Young Woman

My Favorite: Minari

Snub: Wolfwalkers

I think this could go any possible direction really. Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the ones most obviously “WRITTEN” so that would be the safest direction to go and Promising Young Woman has a hype brigade that Trial of the Chicago 7 doesn’t.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
  • The Father
  • Nomadland
  • One Night in Miami…
  • The White Tiger

My Prediction: Nomadland

My Favorite: The Father by a country mile

Snub: First Cow

Very few Best Picture statues are lonely by the end of the night.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Collective
  • Crip Camp
  • The Mole Agent
  • My Octopus Teacher
  • Time

My Prediction: My Octopus Teacher

My Favorite: Time

Snub: Dick Johnson Is Dead

Going with the nicest and most agreeable picks would lean The Mole Agent or My Octopus Teacher and one of these happens to be in English. The Mole Agent is better though.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Onward
  • Over the Moon
  • A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
  • Soul
  • Wolfwalkers

My Prediction: Soul

My Favorite: Wolfwalkers

Snub: Ride Your Wave

I mean, this was set a long time ago. Still hoping for an upset from Wolfwalkers, though.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

  • Another Round
  • Better Days
  • Collective
  • The Man Who Sold His Skin
  • Quo Vadis, Aida?

My Prediction: Another Round

My Favorite: Quo Vadis, Aida?

Like Animated Feature, this was set for certain forever ago and given that Best Director nomination, less chance of an upset here.

BEST FILM EDITING

  • The Father
  • Nomadland
  • Promising Young Woman
  • Sound of Metal
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Prediction: Sound of Metal

My Favorite: The Father by a country mile

Snubs: Tenet, First Cow

This is definitely the hardest to lay it on. Early in the season, I would have predicted Zhao would be the first person to win 4 Oscars in one night since Walt Disney but now it looks like it’s a real horse race here. Going for the “MOST EDITING” would assume we pick out Metal, Chicago 7, or Woman and the two bloggers I most follow on Oscar stuff have both leant on Metal so I guess I’ll follow their lead.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Nomadland
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7

My Prediction: Nomadland

My Favorite: News of the World

Snubs: First Cow, Tenet, Emma.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • The Father
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Tenet

My Prediction: Mank

My Favorite: Mank

Snubs: Pinocchio, Emma.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Emma.
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Mank
  • Mulan
  • Pinocchio

My Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

My Favorite: Emma.

Snubs: Birds of Prey, Wonder Woman 1984

Maybe the only category where I could look at it and nod at the selections in approval.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  • Emma.
  • Hillbilly Elegy
  • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Mank
  • Pinocchio

My Prediction: Hillbilly Elegy

My Favorite: Pinocchio

Snub: Promising Young Woman

It’s that “make actors” ugly thing that I’m guessing by.

BEST SOUND

  • Greyhound
  • Mank
  • News of the World
  • Soul
  • Sound of Metal

My Prediction: Sound of Metal

My Favorite: Soul

Snubs: Tenet, First Cow

I forgot they made it one category now and I’m just shaking my head.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Da 5 Bloods
  • Mank
  • Minari
  • News of the World
  • Soul

My Prediction: Soul

My Favorite: Mank, but it’s the same composers anyway.

Snub: Tenet

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Love and Monsters
  • The Midnight Sky
  • Mulan
  • The One and Only Ivan
  • Tenet

My Prediction: Tenet

My Favorite: Tenet

Snub: Monster Hunter

Outside of Mulan, this ain’t a bad slate either.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • Colette
  • A Concerto Is a Conversation
  • Do Not Split
  • Hunger Ward
  • A Love Song for Latasha

My Prediction: A Concerto Is a Conversation

My Favorite: A Love Song for Latasha

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

  • Feeling Through
  • The Letter Room
  • The Present
  • Two Distant Strangers
  • White Eye

My Prediction: Two Distant Strangers

My Favorite: White Eye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • Burrow
  • Genius Loci
  • Opera
  • If Anything Happens I Love You
  • Yes-People

My Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You

My Favorite: Genius Loci

I normally don’t have any idea what I’m doing with the short categories, but given recent wins, I have taken this ceremony to mostly picking my least favorite of the bunch as my prediction (which bodes hecking bad for Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers may challenge Skin as my least favorite Oscar winner ever if it lands). That doesn’t factor for Best Animated Short as my least favorite is the VERY Icelandic Yes-People so instead I will go with my second least favorite If Anything Happens I Love You, which has the benefit of “relevant so social material”.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Fight for You” – Judas and the Black Messiah
  • “Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • “Io Sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead
  • “Husavik” – Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
  • “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami…

My Prediction: “Speak Now”

My Favorite: “Husavik”

Now more than ever, I cannot bring myself to care about this category.

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