Tomorrow night sees the 94th Annual Academy Awards ceremony take place and part of the fun of those things is rooting for your favorites in the slates and trying to gauge which one will make it. This year I’ve happily shared the routine with my co-hosts on the latest episode of A Night at the Opera, Erickh Norman “West” and Dr. Britt Rhuart, featuring us going over each slate and our feelings on the set. For those who can’t stand our voices though, I provide the list of predictions and picks below. We’ll see how we fare Monday morning (and keep an eye for a post-Oscar episode a little later on).
BEST PICTURE
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
My Pick: The Power of the Dog
My Prediction: CODA
My Snub: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Devastating that one of my favorite movies of the year enjoyed an extensive amount of time as the frontrunner only to be derailed upon the SAG and PGA awards (On the episode, I also go into the path of my initial on-sight prediction for CODA’s Best Picture win since January 2021). It’s not necessarily set in stone (that lack of a Director AND Editing nomination is glaring), but the cynic in me has it certain that we’ll be having a winner as bad as Nomadland and Green Book.
Britt’s prediction: CODA
Erickh’s prediction: The Power of the Dog
BEST DIRECTOR
- Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
- Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
- Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
- Hamaguchi Ryusuke – Drive My Car
- Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
My Prediction: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
My Pick: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
My Snub: Denis Villeneuve – Dune
This is one of my 100% confident locks. Campion’s got all the momentum behind her, even while CODA overtook Power of the Dog on Picture. In fact, the certainly of a split only emboldens my Cassandra-esque doom prophecy of a CODA win.
Britt’s Prediction: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Erickh’s Prediction: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
BEST ACTRESS
- Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
- Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
- Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
- Kristen Stewart – Spencer
My Prediction: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
My Pick: Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
My Snub: Renata Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World
Surprisingly hard for me to be completely certain for this one, usually this one has a clear frontrunner by the night before but I can see clear arguments for Colman, Stewart, and Chastain at this point. I’m sticking to my guns with Kidman (so soon after being on record with Stewart on the show but also changing my answer on air), but there’s probably no category outside of the short films where I am the least confident in my call.
Britt’s Prediction: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Erickh’s Prediction: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST ACTOR
- Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
- Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!
- Will Smith – King Richard
- Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
My Prediction: Will Smith – King Richard
My Pick: Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
My Snub: Nicolas Cage – Pig
Aliens could see this from space. It’s a movie that only exists for Will Smith to get an Oscar, nothing else.
Britt’s Prediction: Will Smith – King Richard
Erickh’s Prediction: Will Smith – King Richard
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
- Judi Dench – Belfast
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
- Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
My Prediction: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
My Pick: Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
My Snub: Rita Moreno – West Side Story
The right momentum and really the right legacy to the role to begin with: it will be the third movie role to have twice earned an Acting Oscar (after Don Corleone and The Joker).
Britt’s Prediction: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Erickh’s Prediction: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
- Troy Kotsur – CODA
- Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
- J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
- Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
My Prediction: Troy Kotsur – CODA
My Pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
My Snub: Jared Leto – House of Gucci
There are much worse things for CODA to win here. Like Best Picture or Best Adapted Screenplay. Anyway, Kotsur and Matlin are everybody’s favorite thing about that movie including myself.
Britt’s Prediction: Troy Kotsur – CODA
Erickh’s Prediction: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
- Zach Baylin – King Richard
- Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
- Adam McKay & David Sirota – Don’t Look Up
- Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World
My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
My Pick: Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World
My Snub: Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos
As much a free-for-all as Best Actress, but I’m expecting the wunderkind of Paul Thomas Anderson to finally get his admiration (my attitude about Licorice Pizza and whether or not it’s due notwithstanding).
ETA 27 March 2022: Last second change the afternoon of. Hearing so many people mutter about the possibility of a Spotlight-scenario with Belfast winning Best Picture makes me tetchy enough to want to lay the foundations of that, which means thinking the only other Oscar Branagh takes home is Screenplay. Very much would prefer this scenario over CODA winning Best Picture. Anyway, no more confident than Anderson, but enough to shift my prediction.
Britt’s Prediction: Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Erickh’s Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
- Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
- Hamaguchi Ryusuke & Oe Takamasa – Drive My Car
- Sian Heder – CODA
- Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, & Eric Roth – Dune
My Prediction: Sian Heder – CODA
My Pick: Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, & Eric Roth – Dune
My Snub: This was really not a great year for Adapted Screenplays and I can’t think of any worthy ones that were in Oscar conversation at all. Maybe Joel Coen for The Tragedy of Macbeth?
In which I observe that I expect CODA – in spite of no Directing or Editing nomination – to get that trifecta that has previously graced Moonlight and Green Book: Best Picture, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. I shudder.
Britt’s Prediction: Sian Heder – CODA
Erickh’s Prediction: Sian Heder – CODA
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- Encanto
- Flee
- Luca
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines
- Raya and the Last Dragon
My Prediction: Encanto
My Pick: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
My Snub: Belle
It’s Disney’s trophy to take home clearly and Encanto is the one that stuck around most in recent memory. Probably part of that is the late surge in people talking about it since its drop to Disney+ over its theatrical release.
Britt’s Prediction: Encanto
Erickh’s Prediction: Encanto
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
- Drive My Car (Japan)
- Flee (Denmark)
- The Hand of God (Italy)
- Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
- The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
My Prediction: Drive My Car
My Pick: The Worst Person in the World
My Snub: A Hero (Iran)
I mean… one of these is a nominee in Best Picture.
Britt’s Prediction: Drive My Car
Erickh’s Prediction: Drive My Car
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
- Ascension
- Attica
- Flee
- Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
- Writing with Fire
My Prediction: Flee
My Pick: I still have to see Ascension
My Snub: The Rescue
I simply cannot imagine Flee has this many shots to an Oscar and goes home empty-handed. It feels at least like Flee has been surrounded by just as much relentless post-Sundance love as Summer of Soul, making this a tight race between the two.
Britt’s Prediction: Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Erickh’s Prediction: Flee
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
- Audible
- Lead Me Home
- The Queen of Basketball
- Three Songs for Benazir
- When We Were Bullies
My Prediction: Audible
My Pick: Audible
Mostly just going with which one seems the most “relevant” for my prediction, which is how you hear me go for Three Songs for Benazir on the episode above but once Britt elaborates on hearing more buzz for Audible, I switch my prediction over to that. In any case, I think it could go between those two.
Britt’s Prediction: Audible
Erickh’s Prediction: Three Songs for Benazir
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
- Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
- The Dress
- The Long Goodbye
- On My Mind
- Please Hold
My Prediction: On My Mind
My Pick: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
On the episode, I tried to go with the “relevance” strategy again and landed on The Dress as a prediction but then I recalled off-the-air that like clockwork, this category has awarded my two least favorite nominees on the slate for the past two ceremonies (Two Distant Strangers and The Neighbors’ Window) and the ceremony before that awarded one of the worst movies I’ve ever seen win an Oscar (Skin). So with that in mind, I adjust my prediction to my least favorite movie on the slate again On My Mind, which is not as bad as Two Distant Strangers but worse than Neighbors’ Window).
Britt’s Prediction: The Long Goodbye
Erickh’s Prediction: On My Mind
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
- Affairs of the Art
- Bestia
- Boxballet
- Robin Robin
- The Windshield Wiper
My Prediction: Robin Robin
My Pick: Robin Robin
It’s just the most pleasant and easy to latch on of all the nominees on this slate, despite most of the nominees being excellent here (I’m confident calling this the best slate of the ceremony, Best Actress and Cinematography are close seconds). Everything else feels like it has something about it that might hold the voter aback a bit (Bestia‘s harrowingness, Boxballet‘s Russian allegory, Affairs of the Art‘s morbidness, and The Windshield Wiper‘s aesthetic).
Britt’s Prediction: Robin Robin
Erickh’s Prediction: Robin Robin
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Nicholas Britell – Don’t Look Up
- Germaine Franco – Encanto
- Alberto Iglesias – Parallel Mothers
- Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog
- Hans Zimmer – Dune
My Prediction: Hans Zimmer – Dune
My Pick: Jonny Greenwood – The Power of the Dog
My Snub: Jonny Greenwood – Spencer
Zimmer’s name recognition as well as Dune‘s score being the easiest to stick around in people’s heads.
Britt’s Prediction: Hans Zimmer – Dune
Erickh’s Prediction: Hans Zimmer – Dune
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Be Alive” – King Richard
- “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
- “Down to Joy” – Belfast
- “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
- “Somehow You Do” – Four Good Days
My Prediction: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
My Pick: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
I just really don’t want Lin-Manuel Miranda to get that fucking EGOT.
Britt’s Prediction: “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
Erickh’s Prediction: “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
BEST SOUND
- Belfast
- Dune
- No Time to Die
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: Dune
My Snub: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Feels like a given as well, with maybe West Side Story taking it. But when it comes to Most Sound, it’s obvious what stands out.
Britt’s Prediction: Dune
Erickh’s Prediction: Dune
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh – The Tragedy of Macbeth
- Tamara Deverell & Shane Vieau – Nightmare Alley
- Grant Major & Amber Richards – The Power of the Dog
- Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – West Side Story
- Patrice Vermette & Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
My Prediction: Patrice Vermette & Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
My Pick: Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh – The Tragedy of Macbeth
My Snub: Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo – The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun
Feels like a given to pick the one with the most obvious and apparent worldbuilding overall.
Britt’s Prediction: Patrice Vermette & Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
Erickh’s Prediction: Patrice Vermette & Zsuzsanna Sipos – Dune
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth
- Greig Fraser – Dune
- Janusz Kaminski – West Side Story
- Dan Laustsen – Nightmare Alley
- Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
My Prediction: Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
My Pick: Bruno Delbonnel – The Tragedy of Macbeth
My Snub: Claire Mathon – Spencer
I’m staying hope that the Best Director Oscar will not be lonely somehow. Otherwise, I’d be betting on Dune staying the technical domination.
Britt’s Prediction: Ari Wegner – The Power of the Dog
Erickh’s Prediction: Janusz Kaminski – West Side Story
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
- Coming 2 America
- Cruella
- Dune
- The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- House of Gucci
My Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
My Pick: House of Gucci
My Snub: Four Good Days
A movie where all the attention seems to be on the makeup transforming the actors (though I personally found it emblematic of a garish film I didn’t enjoy). Feels like a certainty.
Britt’s Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Erickh’s Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Jenny Beavan – Cruella
- Massimo Cantini Parrini & Jacqueline Durran – Cyrano
- Luis Sequeira – Nightmare Alley
- Paul Tazewell – West Side Story
- Jacqueline West & Bob Morgan – Dune
My Prediction: Jenny Beavan – Cruella
My Pick: Jenny Beavan – Cruella
My Snub: Jacqueline Durran – Spencer
I don’t know why I take Film Twitter any fucking seriously, to be honest. If I’m willing to apply the “MOST” principle to Makeup and Production Design, I can’t explain my lapse in judgment on-air assuming West Side Story HAS to take home more than one award somehow. In any case, my concussion has now ceased and I return to predicting Jenny Beavan’s third Oscar win.
Britt’s Prediction: Jenny Beavan – Cruella
Erickh’s Prediction: Jenny Beavan – Cruella
BEST FILM EDITING
- Hank Corwin – Don’t Look Up
- Myron Kerstein & Andrew Weisblum – Tick, Tick… Boom!
- Pamela Martin – King Richard
- Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog
- Joe Walker – Dune
My Prediction: Peter Sciberras – The Power of the Dog
My Pick: Joe Walker – Dune
My Snub: Andrew Weisblum – The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun
As I said on-air, if The Power of the Dog loses this category, it can say goodbye to the Best Picture Oscar for sure. It would otherwise be a well-deserved Oscar and I don’t see why my pessimism has to run this deep until it loses.
Britt’s Prediction: Joe Walker – Dune
Erickh’s Prediction: Hank Corwin – Don’t Look Up
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Dune
- Free Guy
- No Time to Die
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
- Spider-Man: No Way Home
My Prediction: Dune
My Pick: Dune
My Snub: Eternals
Feels like a certainly. No other popcorn movie had the sense of heft that this one had and they have to give this Best Picture nominee SOMETHING.
Britt’s Prediction: Dune
Erickh’s Prediction: Dune
Movie Motorbreath 