Predicting the Nominations of the 95th Academy Awards

Goddamn, that shit really creeped up on me this month without realizing tomorrow sees the morning that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences names its nominees for this year’s Oscar ceremony. Since I wasn’t paying enough attention to the momentum (a lot of these felt like done deals for a while), you’ll forgive me for not elaborating too much on my predictions and merely present them so we can point and laugh tomorrow morning when I fucked up.

ETA 24 January 2023 – Post has been updated taking stock of what I got right and wrong. Items I predicted that did not make it through have received a strikethrough, items I did not predict that were added are in bold. Also in bold below are counts per slate of what I got right and my respective comments towards the results.

BEST PICTURE

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • Tár
  • Top Gun: Maverick
  • Triangle of Sadness
  • The Whale
  • Women Talking

9/10 Correct. I’m not too surprised with Triangle of Sadness‘ success here, but I hoped against hope for it to falter. Not that I was a Whale fan either. In any case, the result here is a Best Picture slate where – for the first time since the 87th Oscars – I actually love at least half of the nominees.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Todd Field – Tár
  • Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
  • Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

4/5 Correct. Absolutely mad that Cameron was snubbed for arthouse Adam McKay.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Ana de Armas – Blonde
  • Cate Blanchett – Tár
  • Danielle Deadwyler – Till
  • Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
  • Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
  • Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

4/5 Correct. That manic celebrity-driven campaign by Riseborough to get nominated for a film almost nobody saw actually landed. I can’t say much since I have yet to see either Till or To Leslie, but it’s maybe not a great look since that slot would have otherwise gone to either Deadwyler or Viola Davis (for The Woman King which is fucking awesome and we failed).

BEST ACTOR

  • Austin Butler – Elvis
  • Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Brendan Fraser- The Whale
  • Paul Mescal – Aftersun
  • Bill Nighy – Living

5/5 Correct. Wiping dust off my shoulder.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Hong Chau – The Whale
  • Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Dolly de Leon – Triangle of Sadness
  • Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

4/5 Correct. Pretty wild that despite the rise in nominations for Triangle of Sadness, Dolly de Leon missed out. She was maybe the only good performance in that piece of shit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
  • Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Bryan Tyree Henry – Causeway
  • Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
  • Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

3/5 Correct. Much deserved nomination for Henry certainly, though I imagine Dano will make this his villain origin story when he becomes the Jok– the Riddler.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Todd Field – Tár
  • Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
  • Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
  • Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

4/5 Correct. I wasn’t rooting for Aftersun in anything really, but man is Triangle of Sadness a downgrade.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, & Lesley Patterson – All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Guillermo del Toro & Patrick McHale – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  • Ishiguro Kazuo – Living
  • Ehren Kruge, Eric Warren Singer, & Christopher McQuarrie – Top Gun: Maverick
  • Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
  • Sarah Polley – Women Talking

4/5 Correct. While Top Gun‘s nomination is deserved, I’m a little peeved – barring Living, which I haven’t yet seen – the only good screenplay in my prediction slate was sacrificed.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Argentina 1985
  • Close
  • Decision to Leave
  • EO
  • The Quiet Girl

4/5 Correct. Decision to Leave‘s snub is not as much a surprise to me as it appears to others – given Oscar’s chilly history with South Korea, Parasite aside – but it does disappoint me.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • The Bad Guys
  • Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  • The Sea Beast
  • Turning Red

4/5 Correct. Anything I was rooting for outside of Pinocchio and Puss in Boots honestly never had a chance. If Marcel the Shit with Shit On wins, I will slap every person I know who loves it. Backhand and fronthand. Somebody better crush that tiny shell before I grab a hammer and find it.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
  • All That Breathes
  • Bad Axe
  • Fire of Love
  • A House Made of Splinters
  • Navalny

4/5 Correct. Honestly surprised I got so close. All I knew was Moonage Daydream wasn’t getting that shit.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
  • Greig Fraser – The Batman
  • James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Florian Hoffmeister – Tár
  • Darius Khondji – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
  • Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick
  • Mandy Walker – Elvis

3/5 Correct. Top Gun missing this slate is a major shocker (though I’d be lying if I said I lament this, great as the movie is). Khondji’s work makes sense as an entrant here, but I’m at a loss on what made Tar a nominee. Better than All Quiet‘s cinematography, though.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
  • Ruth Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Catherine Martin – Elvis
  • Sandy Powell – Living
  • Mary Zophres – Babylon

4/5 Correct. I guess Oscar don’t love Sandy Powell THAT much. Kurata’s the only nominee who ain’t about the old guard.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara – The Fabelmans
  • Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, & Vanessa Cole – Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Daniel M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper – All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Rick Heinrichs – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
  • Jason Kisvarday – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, & Bev Dunn – Elvis
  • Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino – Babylon

3/5 Correct. No real comment except it wouldn’t have been a bad thing for Glass Onion to have made it here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  • Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking
  • Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
  • Son Lux – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • John Williams – The Fabelmans

3/5 Correct. No love for Desplat, I guess. I’m glad the three predictions I loved most survived.

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
  • Michael Kahn & Sarah Broshar – The Fabelmans
  • Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua, & James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond – Elvis
  • Monika Willi – Tár

3/5 Correct. I really love The Banshees of Inisherin but its entrance into this slate baffles me. Terrible editing.

BEST SOUND

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Batman
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Top Gun: Maverick

4/5 Correct. No real comment.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Amsterdam
  • The Batman
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Elvis
  • The Whale

4/5 Correct. Man, I was fucking goofy thinking Amsterdam was getting any nomination.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Batman
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
  • Nope
  • Top Gun: Maverick

3/5 Correct. Genuinely embarrassing that Nope got snubbed in this specific category but Black Panther – featuring the ugliest visuals in the entire MCU – got the nomination.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

  • An Irish Goodbye
  • Ivalu
  • Le Pupille
  • Night Ride
  • The Red Suitcase
  • Sideral
  • Warsha

3/5 Correct.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  • 38 at the Garden
  • As Far as They Can Run
  • The Elephant Whisperers
  • Haulout
  • Holding Moses
  • How Do You Measure a Year?
  • The Martha Mitchell Effect
  • Nuisance Bear
  • Stranger at the Gate

1/5 Correct.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

  • The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
  • The Flying Sailor
  • Ice Merchants
  • My Year of Dicks
  • An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
  • New Moon
  • Save Ralph

3/5 Correct. I never fucking know what I’m doing with the goddamn short categories.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • “Applause” – Tell It Like a Woman
  • “Carolina” – Where the Crawdads Sing
  • “Ciao Papa” – Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
  • “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
  • “Lift Me Up” – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
  • “This Is a Life” – Everything Everywhere All at Once

3/5 Correct. Should have known better than not to predict the Diane Warren entry.

Advertisement

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s