Just fresh off of watching the last of the 54 nominees, just fresh off of recording the latest episode of A Night at the Opera pre-gaming for tomorrow’s ceremony, and I’m pretty happy to say: I’m kind of jazzed over how uncertain my nominations are here. Not necessarily because I like the nominees – hell, the favorite of the competition is a movie I flat out do not like – but just the anticipation is intoxicating. It feels like we haven’t had this unpredictability since the 88th Oscars at least. Anyway, I’ll elaborate on my thought process for each prediction, my picks, what I think should have been nominated and for the rest of the fun, listen to podcast to listen to Britt, Erickh, and myself hash it out.
Let’s see how I fare at the end of tomorrow evening.
BEST PICTURE
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
PREDICTION: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SPOILER: Tár
MY PICK: The Fabelmans
SHOULD BE HERE: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
(Britt’s prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Erickh’s prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once)
It’s just the momentum behind it. I’m not nearly as outraged about this: I may not be a fan of Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I really hated the last two winners of Best Picture and EEAAO at least feels more unconventional and non-Oscarbaity than those two (or Green Book if we skip past Parasite being the only worthy winner of the last 5 years).
BEST DIRECTOR
- Todd Field – Tár
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
- Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
PREDICTION: The Daniels
SPOILER: Steven Spielberg
MY PICK: Steven Spielberg
SHOULD BE HERE: James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
(Britt’s Prediction: The Daniels
Erickh’s Prediction: The Daniels)
A little less certain here than the Best Picture win but I can’t see the Academy seeing a reason to break the Picture-Director synchronicity to award it to an already twice-awarded titan, except that Spielberg is way better.
BEST ACTRESS
- Ana de Armas – Blonde
- Cate Blanchett – Tár
- Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
- Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
PREDICTION: Michelle Yeoh
SPOILER: Cate Blanchett
MY PICK: Michelle Yeoh
SHOULD BE HERE: Viola Davis – The Woman King
(Britt’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh
Erickh’s Prediction: Michelle Yeoh)
Would be the funniest shit if Andrea Riseborough wins and so I am rooting for it to happen. That said, I really do like all five performances on this slate with Yeoh being the single least objectionable win I can think of for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Won’t shed tears if it goes to anyone else, though. And to be clear… Davis’ performance in The Woman King is better than all of them.
BEST ACTOR
- Austin Butler – Elvis
- Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser – The Whale
- Paul Mescal – Aftersun
- Bill Nighy – Living
PREDICTION: Brendan Fraser
SPOILER: Austin Butler
MY PICK: Colin Farrell
SHOULD BE HERE: Daniel Giménez Cacho – BARDO, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
(Britt’s Prediction: Brendan Fraser
Erickh’s Prediction: Austin Butler)
Pretty confident on the hunger of the Oscars to have not just ONE happy comeback story but TWO of them. That said, my co-host Britt made a very good argument on Oscar’s allergy to Best Actor Comeback Stories after Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler lost to Sean Penn in Milk. If that bias shows up again, Butler’s the one fella who’s in the favorite genre of movies: biopics.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau – The Whale
- Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
PREDICTION: Angela Bassett
SPOILER: Kerry Condon
MY PICK: Kerry Condon
SHOULD BE HERE: Lashana Lynch – The Woman King
(Britt’s Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis
Erickh’s Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis)
I think Bassett has got the exact right set of precursors and I’ll be honest, it never occurred to me that Curtis had any real shot until my co-hosts were predicting her. But I still have to think Chau and Condon have more conversation before Curtis among voters and I wonder how allergic they’ll be to giving Curtis an award over 3 women of color ESPECIALLY if Blanchett ends up succeeding at her upset and taking Actress over Yeoh.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
- Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
PREDICTION: Ke Huy Quan
SPOILER: Will Smith walks right back up that stage with his hand ready.
MY PICK: Barry Keoghan
SHOULD BE HERE: Tom Hanks – Elvis
(Britt’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan
Erickh’s Prediction: Ke Huy Quan)
The award I am the most confident predicting of the night. That’s happening.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Todd Field – Tár
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
- Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
PREDICTION: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SPOILER: The Banshees of Inisherin
MY PICK: The Banshees of Inisherin
SHOULD BE HERE: James Gray – Armageddon Time
(Britt’s Prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin
Erickh’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once)
It only makes sense to use this category to pad the pocket of whatever is winning Best Picture, so I’m feeling steady here. I’m not optimistic to imagine Banshees taking this home, though it’s so obviously the best of the set. Hell, even if we presume EEAAO gets spoiled out, I’m not convinced Tár won’t be the spoiler.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, & Ian Stokell – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Ishiguro Kazuo – Living
- Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, & Christopher McQuarrie – Top Gun: Maverick
- Sarah Polley – Women Talking
PREDICTION: Women Talking
SPOILER: All Quiet on the Western Front
MY PICK: Living
SHOULD BE HERE: George Miller & Augusta Gore – Three Thousand Years of Longing (though certainly Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio had a better shot)
(Britt’s Prediction: Women Talking
Erickh’s Prediction: Women Talking)
All three Best Picture nods have a shot here but I can’t imagine the outrage the internet will roll out if Women Talking goes home empty-handed. Even though it’s probably among the least discussed nominees I can think of.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- The Sea Beast
- Turning Red
PREDICTION: Turning Red
SPOILER: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
MY PICK: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
SHOULD BE HERE: Inu-Oh
(Britt’s Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Erickh’s Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)
I honestly think this is anyone’s game outside of The Sea Beast. I think there’s a real shot that Turning Red makes me look like a fucking idiot as the nominee that feels like it’s not even bothering campaign but y’know… the last time I had this vibe that a Disney movie wasn’t working to win was Big Hero 6 and that was an upset of a win. I expect beyond the overnight success of Puss in Boots or the prestige of Pinocchio, it’s that Disney money that will ensure its potential win here. In any case, still better a winner than the fucking shell that also has a good shot.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
- Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
- Close (Belgium)
- EO (Poland)
- The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
PREDICTION: All Quiet on the Western Front
SPOILER: EO
MY PICK: This is a genuinely dire list, the worst I think we’ve seen for this slate in a long time. I guess, EO.
SHOULD BE HERE: Decision to Leave
(Britt’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Erickh’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front)
No real reason to expect disruption to the token Best Picture nominee taking it home, though I do hear a lot more praise for EO over it.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- All That Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- A House Made of Splinters
- Navalny
PREDICTION: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
SPOILER: Fire of Love
MY PICK: All That Breathes
(Britt’s Prediction: Navalny
Erickh’s Prediction: Navalny)
Fire of Love is the easiest watch of the bunch by a lot. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed has an Oscar alumni behind it and a sense of important messaging that had more staying power than either of the Ukraine/Russian related works (though Navalny is an “easier” watch than A House Made of Splinters – Splinters is a good movie though and Navalny is a piece of shit). Going with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with a bit of uncertainty behind my prediction.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
- The Elephant Whisperers
- Haulout
- How Do You Measure a Year?
- The Martha Mitchell Effect
- Stranger at the Gate
PREDICTION: Stranger at the Gate
SPOILER: The Elephant Whisperers
MY PICK: Haulout
(Britt’s Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers
Erickh’s Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers)
Same principle as the Doc Feature category: Elephant Whisperers is an easy watch enough to be a spoiler, but Stranger at the Gate has the sense of “social relevance”, specifically the condescending kind of white Oscar voters will pat themselves on the back for even though it tokenizes both Muslim people and PTSD-inflected veterans. That’s catnip for them.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
- An Irish Goodbye
- Ivalu
- Night Ride
- Le Pupille
- The Red Suitcase
PREDICTION: An Irish Goodbye
SPOILER: Le Pupille
MY PICK: The Red Suitcase
(Britt’s Prediction: Le Pupille
Erickh’s Prediction: An Irish Goodbye)
Straight up, An Irish Goodbye had the best audience response out of the nominees when I saw these shorts in the theater. Le Pupille does have the pedigree behind it and the last time I counted that out was last year’s win for The Long Goodbye but c’mon… it can’t possibly happen again, could it? Especially since Cuarón and Rohrwacher aren’t ON-SCREEN like Riz Ahmed was.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
- The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
- The Flying Sailor
- Ice Merchants
- An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
- My Year of Dicks
PREDICTION: The Boy, the Mole, Yada yada
SPOILER: An Ostrich Told Me the Yada was Yada
MY PICK: Ice Merchants
(Britt’s Prediction: The Boy, The Mole, and the other fuckers
Erickh’s Prediction: My Year of Dicks)
Again, The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse had… some audience response. People laughed at a late reveal but people were also murmuring about how great it was. Clearly soulless people, but in any case, it feels like the most popular of this bunch despite being the only movie that’s a piece of shit and besides which the universe hates me enough to constantly let my least favorite nominee in this slate win.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Volker Bertelmann – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Carter Burwell – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
- Son Lux – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- John Williams – The Fabelmans
PREDICTION: Babylon
SPOILER: All Quiet on the Western Front
MY PICK: Babylon
SHOULD BE HERE: Michael Giacchino – The Batman
(Britt’s Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Erickh’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once)
I honestly was not expecting to predict Babylon for anything, looking at this slate. It just feels right. Maybe it’s blinding me from it being pit against four Best Picture nominees, including one as my spoiler with a really weird enough score to stand out (though in my opinion a terrible way). But it’s pure vibes for me here.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
- “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
- “Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
- “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
PREDICTION: “Naatu Naatu”
SPOILER: “Hold My Hand”
MY PICK: “Naatu Naatu”
SHOULD BE HERE: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing if I’m sticking to shortlist items, but I think it’s ridiculous The Bob’s Burgers Movie didn’t make the shortlist at all.
(Britt’s Prediction: “Naatu Naatu”
Erickh’s Prediction: “Naatu Naatu”)
The internet is clamoring for RRR to get something at the Oscars, “Naatu Naatu” is the only song that is a musical number, and come on have you really heard anybody talk about the other nominees?
BEST SOUND
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick
PREDICTION: Top Gun: Maverick
SPOILER: All Quiet on the Western Front
MY PICK: Elvis
SHOULD BE HERE: She Said
(Britt’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Erickh’s Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick)
If Top Gun is taking any trophy, it’d have to be this one. Still if All Quiet on the Western Front will make anything like the fuss it made back at the BAFTAs, this seems the place to begin its upset run.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara – The Fabelmans
- Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, & Vanessa Cole – Avatar: The Way of Water
- Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, & Bev Dunn – Elvis
- Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino – Babylon
PREDICTION: Elvis
SPOILER: Babylon
MY PICK: Avatar: The Way of Water
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Akin McKenzie & Christophe Dalberg – The Woman King
(Britt’s Prediction: Babylon
Erickh’s Prediction: Elvis)
Sticking to my presumption that the only shot Babylon has in this awards is score, I’m picking Elvis as the next showiest of the bunch especially in tandem with Best Costume Design.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
- James Friend – All Quiet on the Western Front
- Florian Hoffmeister – Tár
- Darius Khondji – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
- Mandy Walker – Elvis
PREDICTION: All Quiet on the Western Front
SPOILER: Tár
MY PICK: Bardo, in maybe my least favorite slate of the whole awards.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Janusz Kaminski – The Fabelmans
(Britt’s Prediction: Elvis
Erickh’s Prediction: Elvis)
Feels like anybody’s pick but All Quiet on the Western Front is the one that may make an upset sweep for sure and this would have to be square one.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- The Whale
PREDICTION: The Whale
SPOILER: Elvis
MY PICK: Elvis
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Crimes of the Future
(Britt’s Prediction: Elvis
Erickh’s Prediction: The Whale)
If I picked Fraser for his transformation, it would only make sense to go with the make-up that facilitated that transformation. In turn, if Elvis wins this, we can be sure Butler is taking home that Actor trophy.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Jenny Beavan – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
- Ruth Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Catherine Martin – Elvis
- Mary Zophres – Babylon
PREDICTION: Elvis
SPOILER: Babylon
MY PICK: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Kym Barrett – Three Thousand Years of Longing
(Britt’s Prediction: Elvis
Erickh’s Prediction: Elvis)
Same principle as Production Design. Elvis takes that, it’s taking this one. If Babylon takes that one, mayyyybe it’ll take this as well (it’ll certainly deserve it more than Production Design) but also this slate has some pretty hard contenders with Mrs. Harris being the only certain loser. But really I’d have to go with a biopic portraying the most gaudily dressed stage performer outside of Liberace and Elton John.
BEST FILM EDITING
- Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
- Mikkel E.G. Nielsen – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond – Elvis
- Monika Willi – Tár
PREDICTION: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SPOILER: Top Gun: Maverick
MY PICK: Top Gun: Maverick
SHOULD BE HERE: Margaret Sixel – Three Thousand Years of Longing
(Britt’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Erickh’s Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Top Gun: Maverick definitely has a good chance here but Everything Everywhere All at Once needs good padding as the Best Picture favorite – I think my final tally of awards it’s taking is five – and it definitely has that show-offy MOST editing that usually takes this award.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick
PREDICTION: Avatar: The Way of Water
SPOILER: Someone busts into the Dolby Theatre announcing they object to this union.
MY PICK: Avatar: The Way of Water
SHOULD BE HERE: Nope
(Britt’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Erickh’s Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water)
One could argue the sole purpose of Avatar is to coo over bleeding-edge effects. There IS more to Avatar than that, but I mean on obvious glance.
Movie Motorbreath 