Nomination Predictions for the 96th Academy Awards

ETA 23 January 2024 – alright, the nominees are out to let’s take stock of how my predictions did below. Anything I got wrong is struck through, anything I missed is added in bold.

It’s that time again, y’all. Tomorrow morning, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces the nominees for their 96th annual award ceremony reflecting the “best” in 2023 cinema. Almost as fun to predict who wins is predicting who makes it onto the slate to begin with so, with minimal commentary (perhaps to be provided after tomorrow’s announcements), I present my predictions below. See y’all tomorrow.

BEST PICTURE

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

ALTERNATE: May December, except I think Oscars secretly dislike Haynes.

10/10 CORRECT and I’m a little sad to learn that’s the case. I have not yet seen Maestro or The Zone of Interest yet so I’d have to bank on one of them being great enough to prevent this from being the most disinteresting Best Picture slate since… fucking 2008, sheesh.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Greta Gerwig – Barbie
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

ALTERNATE: Alexander Payne – The Holdovers

4/5 CORRECT, not really shedding any tears for Gerwig losing this one but even while I like Anatomy of a Fall way more, this feels like a lateral move. Once again, I need to hope Jonathan Glazer – who has been 3-for-3 on some of my favorite features of the 21st Century – can give me even one director I can root for here, but I’d be lying if I said “Oscar attention” makes me optimistic for The Zone of Interest. We’ll see.

BEST ACTOR

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro
• Colman Domingo – Rustin
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

ALTERNATE: Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon

5/5 CORRECT yet again and I am quite happy to see DiCaprio’s absence here since he’s kind of the biggest reason Killers of the Flower Moon is not any good. I like the three performances I’ve seen off this list just fine, but I also don’t have any strong feelings for them. Doesn’t feel like a particularly interesting slate either and prepare to consider that a running theme in this here post.

BEST ACTRESS

• Annette Bening – Nyad
• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro
• Margot Robbie – Barbie
• Emma Stone – Poor Things

ALTERNATE: Annette Bening – Nyad

4/5 CORRECT. And now I have to Nyad, what’s one more Oscarbait watch on a pile of them? I can’t say I’m shedding the tears for Margot Robbie that the internet is shedding since she is still nominated as a Producer for Best Picture. Not that she had a good shot of winning either statue anyway.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
• Willem Dafoe Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie
• Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers

ALTERNATE: Charles Melton – May December

3/5 CORRECT. I got the wrong Poor Things performance evidently and I like Brown’s performance in American Fiction so I’m not too sad to see Sessa knocked right out. I do think it suggests a weakness in The Holdovers chances when one of the three central performances couldn’t get that sort of acclaim (though I still think Giamatti and Randolph might walk home with trophies).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
• Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
• America Ferrara – Barbie
• Jodie Foster – Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

ALTERNATE: Rachel McAdams – Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret

4/5 CORRECT. I’ll admit Cruz seemed like a long shot but I definitely was not expecting the Academy to like Ferrara’s monologue THAT much.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Sammy Burch & Alex Mechanik – May December
• Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer – Maestro
• David Hemingson – The Holdovers
• Celine Song – Past Lives
• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

ALTERNATE: Emerald Fennell – Saltburn

5/5 CORRECT. Gives me the same “nothing” feeling really that all the other slates do, though I guess Anatomy of a Fall is functional enough and May December is really funny.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach – Barbie
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
• Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
• Tony McNamara – Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
• Martin Scorsese & Eric Roth – Killers of the Flower Moon

ALTERNATE: Kelly Fremon Craig – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

4/5 CORRECT. Laughing at the Killers snub, like goddamn. Probably would have been the worst screenplay on the slate if it stuck around and this isn’t particularly filled with any big winners either (maybe The Zone of Interest will change that when I see it).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• The Boy and the Heron
• Elemental
• Nimona
• Robot Dreams
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• The Super Mario Bros. Movie
• Suzume

ALTERNATE: Robot Dreams

3/5 CORRECT. Intrigued by Robot Dreams making it through, maybe it would redeem the Suzume snub for me. Nimona, on the other hand, probably my least favorite nominee that I’ve watched for this ceremony thus far.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

• 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
• Fallen Leaves (Finland)
• Io Capitano (Italy)
• Perfect Days (Japan)
• Society of the Snow (Spain)
• The Taste of Things (France)
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
• The Zone of Interest (UK)

ALTERNATE: The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)

2/5 CORRECT. Have to admit, I’m shaken by how off the mark I was here. All three of the films I predicted that didn’t land felt like they had the right amount of appeal and acclaim to secure their spot. Anyway, I’m sure France is kicking themselves over their submission but I also think The Taste of Things looks… really good.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• 20 Days in Mariupol
• American Symphony
• Beyond Utopia
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President
• The Eternal Memory
• Four Daughters
• Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
• To Kill a Tiger

ALTERNATE: The Eternal Memory

2/5 CORRECT. This category matches the shorts in “I don’t know what I’m doing” energy anyway, but the American Symphony snub is a real surprise.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Edward Lachman – El Conde
• Matthew Libatique – Maestro
• Rodrigo Prieto – Barbie
• Rodrigo Prieto – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robbie Ryan – Poor Things
• Linus Sandgren – Saltburn
• Hoyte van Hoytema – Oppenheimer

ALTERNATE: Łukasz Żal – The Zone of Interest

3/5 CORRECT. Bye bye, Saltburn, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. My optimism for El Conde has been fading a bit but I think I’m at least hopeful it’s pretty to look at it.

BEST FILM EDITING

• Nick Houy – Barbie
• Jennifer Lame – Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Mavropsaridis – Poor Things
• Thelma Schoonmaker – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Laurent Sénéchal – Anatomy of a Fall
• Kevin Tent – The Holdovers
• Michelle Tesoro – Maestro

ALTERNATE: Pietro Scalia – Ferrari

3/5 CORRECT. Having seen all of the nominees, I think Lame’s work on Oppenheimer is the only one that makes my heart flutter.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Jacqueline Durran – Barbie
• Lindy Hemmings – Wonka
• Ellen Mirojnick – Oppenheimer
• Holly Waddington – Poor Things
• Jacqueline West – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Janty Yates & David Crossman – Napoleon

ALTERNATE: Francine Jamison-Tanchuck – The Color Purple

4/5 CORRECT. I really didn’t think Oscars would like suits enough to go with Oppenheimer, but I guess that scene where he puts on the hat like a superhero cowl won them over.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Suzie Davies – Saltburn
• Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman – Oppenheimer
• Jack Fisk & Adam Willis – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer – Barbie
• Arthur Max – Napoleon
• Shona Heath, James Price, & Szusza Mihalek – Poor Things

ALTERNATE: Adam Stockhausen – Asteroid City

4/5 CORRECT. Another instance where I underestimated Oscar’s love, I thought Jack Fisk was way too underappreciated by them.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Jerskin Fendrix – Poor Things
• Ludwig Göransson – Oppenheimer
• Joe Hisaishi – The Boy and the Heron
• Laura Karpman – American Fiction
• Robbie Robertson – Killers of the Flower Moon
• John Williams – Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

ALTERNATE: Mica Levi – The Zone of Interest

4/5 CORRECT. Look, I liked American Fiction and I like jazz, but I’m damned if I can tell you anything about the score.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Golda
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow

ALTERNATE: Beau Is Afraid

5/5 CORRECT. Big day for antisemites who think nose pieces are the best way to represent Jewish people.

BEST SOUND

• The Creator
• Ferrari
• Maestro
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest

ALTERNATE: Killers of the Flower Moon

3/5 CORRECT. Kind of sad to see Ferrari completely shut out, I thought it was one of the better Oscarbait contenders.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “The Fire Inside” – Flamin’ Hot
• “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
• “It Never Went Away” – American Symphony
• “Superpower” – The Color Purple
• “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” – Killers of the Flower Moon

ALTERNATE: “Road to Freedom” – Rustin

4/5 CORRECT. Three inevitabilities in life: Death, taxes, and a Diane Warren Best Original Song nomination.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
• Napoleon
• Society of the Snow
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

ALTERNATE: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

3/5 CORRECT. Surprised that Napoleon had such a strong turnout (but also dreading seeing the movie, honestly)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• Humo
• I’m Hip
• Letter to a Pig
• Ninety-Five Senses
• Our Uniform
• Pachyderme
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
• Wild Summon

2/5 CORRECT.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

• The After
• Good Boy
• Invincible
• Knight of Fortune
• Red, White, and Blue
• The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar
• Yellow

3/5 CORRECT.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• The ABCs of Book Banning
• The Barber of Little Rock
• Camp Courage
• Deciding Vote
• Island in Between
• The Last Repair Shop
• Last Song from Kabul
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
• Wings of Dust

1/5 CORRECT. Like I always say, I have no fucking idea what I’m doing with these categories.